Wednesday, November 03, 2004

election vigil

11:30pm
No results in as yet. There seems to have been a high turnout, which supposedly favours Kerry. I have Sky News on, waiting for the BBC’s commercial free coverage to start at midnight. I have made a tentative resolution not to visit the USA again until Bush is out of the White House.

12:30am
[based on projections Bush 39 Kerry 3 so far]
Ohio has just been declared “too close to call”, not a surprise there as it’s a crucial “swing state”, but interestingly Virginia is the same, having been a Bush win in 2000. The two networks I am watching have all their experts banging on, with the Democrat friendly BBC (Beat Bush’s Campaign) on one side, and SKY (Send Kerry Yonder) on the other. The early projection lead for Bush was expected with the big states like California and New York bound to drag Kerry back into the race.

1:30am
[based on projections Bush 94 Kerry 78 so far]
Only the safe states have declared so far, still nothing for Ohio. I’m starting to nod off for long periods. Many feel this could go well beyond tomorrow morning, early indications make this seem bang on.

2:30am
[based on projections Bush 172 Kerry 112 so far]
Still no surprises. The gap still looks wide, but don’t forget California and New York should go to Kerry and represent about 100 between them. About seven or eight states are too close to call. I just noted that New York has already come in for Kerry. I’m starting to care less about the whole thing with every passing hour. Analysis of the 3 key states have Bush ahead in FL and OH, Kerry ahead in PA.

3:30am
[based on projections Bush 197 Kerry 112 so far]
It’s not looking good for Kerry. Still nothing decided in the 3 key states and it seems clear now that these will decide the outcome. I’ve been up and about the past hour. Jesse Jackson is now talking to the BBC, still upbeat. Of all the states that have called one way or another, things are as you were since 2000, though that may change when New Hampshire declares, their 4 votes could go to Senator Kerry.

4:30am
[based on projections Bush 211 Kerry 188 so far]
One of the BBC’s panellists, a black friend of Condoleeza Rice, kept saying the word “mature” with a hard “t” which really bugged me. Also bugging me is the fact that Kerry’s chances are extremely remote. Florida is definitely gone, and Ohio is also looking bad. Also confirmation is through that both houses on Capitol Hill have gone to the Republicans.

5:30am
[based on projections Bush 246 Kerry 206 so far]
The Ohio vote so far has Bush ahead by 129,000 votes, which is fascinating since there is apparently a dispute about that many votes in the state, something about people voting that were unsure if they were registered, called “provisional ballots”. This could all get ugly again, especially since New Hampshire and possibly Nevada swinging to Kerry. Having said that, reports have Fox News calling Ohio for Bush, and their campaign headquarters is claiming four more years.

6:15am
[based on projections Bush 249 Kerry 217 so far]
Ohio’s 20 votes will virtually clinch it for Bush. At 269 Kerry can still tie, but the casting vote will go to the Republican House of Representatives, so go figure. Time to go to bed methinks.

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